After the intelligence prophecies and threats of the last few days, he left yesterday evening Iran's attack on Israel. Tehran hit the enemy with several waves of drones and missiles: “The issue can be said to be concluded” with the military action conducted by Iran against Israel “on the basis of article 51 of the United Nations Charter relating to self-defense” and in “response to the Zionist regime's aggression against our diplomatic offices in Damascus”. The US and French fighters took off for Iraqi airspace, the EU condemned the attack, speaking with concern of “unprecedented escalation”. And the main dilemma is precisely this: what could be the next developments in the Middle East?
Will Iran respect its word or continue to attack Israel, perhaps increasing the aggressiveness of its military actions? In other words: will Tehran unleash air strikes or sabotage actions against Israeli targets? Israel's possible response also needs to be evaluated: a muscular response is not ruled out, with attacks against Iranian infrastructure in Syria or Lebanon. Biden preaches calm and asked Netanyahu to “take this victory” and not react. Further military action by Tel Aviv would undoubtedly lead to a direct escalation between the two countries. But this is only one scenario.
There international community could play a leading role. As witnessed in the first reactions, there is apprehension about a widening of the conflict. From here the possible mediation for a ceasefire: the USA, the EU but also Russia and China could exert “pressure” from a diplomatic point of view on Israel and Iran to start negotiations. Mediation would be aimed primarily at avoiding one wider regional war with the involvement of actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon e Hamas in the Gaza Strip, ready to coordinate with Tehran to corner Tel Aviv.
And the hypothesis of one third World war Is it that remote? At the moment it would seem so, but the international situation is so delicate that one incident is enough to trigger an expansion of the conflict even if unwanted. The West has reiterated on more than one occasion that it does not want to go to war with anyone, as evidenced by the Ukrainian dossier. Much will depend on developments in the Middle Eastern area: the US and the EU have reiterated their support for the Jewish state, but the “ambitions” of others must be taken into account. Russia could find room for maneuver, without forgetting that Damascus is a kind of satellite of Moscow. Further updates coming soon.
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