The spread between BTPs and Bunds returns to 100 basis points for the first time since the spring of 2025. According to Borsa Italiana prices, the differential between the yields of Italian and German ten-year government bonds reached a peak of 100.17 points, and then closed around 100: approximately 3.5 points more than on Monday. On the Bloomberg platform the value stands at around 99 points. The slight difference depends on the titles taken as reference for the calculation.
Above all, the cost at which Italy finances itself on the markets is rising. The BTP maturing in July 2036 closed with a yield of 4.61%, updating the highest levels since November 2023. When yields increase, the State must offer higher interests to place new securities or refinance those maturing. The effect on public finances, however, manifests itself gradually: bonds already issued at a fixed rate retain the conditions established at the time of issue.
A global problem
The tension does not only concern Italy. The energy shock fuels fears of persistent inflation and pushes investors to demand higher yields to buy long-dated bonds. Bond markets are also under pressure in the United States: the yield on the 30-year Treasury has reached around 5.60%, at the highest levels since 2002.
In Europe, France records a differential compared to the German Bund of approximately 119 basis points, higher than the Italian one. In addition to the international situation, French securities are affected by worries about public debt and uncertainty about the budget outlook.
The return of the Italian spread to 100 points is therefore a signal to follow, but alone it does not describe all the pressure on the debt. To understand how much it costs to finance, the absolute yield of BTPs also counts: and it is precisely its increase, up to 4.61% on the ten-year period considered, that is the most relevant data for the State’s accounts.
Giorgetti’s comment: “Spread above 100 points? Luckily we were careful”
“Let’s see what happens on the international financial markets. As I have always said, we need to be very careful about the debt, luckily we have been careful about the debt” is the comment of the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti to those who asked him, on the sidelines of the visit to Prague with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whether he is worried about the spread which has exceeded 100 points.
“Fortunately, we have been attentive to the debt in the previous four years, fortunately. Fortunately” concluded the Minister of Economy.